Should we really be worried about this Bird Flu that we have been hearing about? I have heard some interesting points on NPR, and read quite a lot about it, and it seems to me the answer is an astounding yes.
Avian Flu in birds is quite common; it is simply a type of Influenza virus that is transmissible among birds. There are many known subtypes of this virus. Some are capable of killing the birds, and some have proven they have an ability to cross over to other species, including humans. The subtype H5N1 has to variations of itself, the low pathogenic and the highly pathogenic version. The latter having a 90-100% mortality rate.
There are reported cases since 1997 in which the virus has crossed over to humans. In 1997 there were 18 cases in Hong Kong. Only 6 of the patients died, and 1.5 million chickens were slaughtered to prevent further outbreak of this strain that came to be known as H5N1.
Since this outbreak many more have happened, from the Netherlands to Virginia, Vietnam to Canada and popping back up in Hong Kong frequently. 170 cases of human infection of the H5N1 virus have been confirmed. The number of deaths was recently reported by the BBC as just reaching the century mark. What has so many worried is that although rare, with every cross over of this virus it gets the chance to adapt and develop an ability to be as transmissible among humans as current human Influenza is. If that was to happen the current ratio of infections leading to deaths is alarming.
Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?
There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," he told ABC's "World News Tonight." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited as the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
"I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.
"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said.
"I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."
