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'America Will Collapse' - Dimitri Orlov

America must work on starting a new economy and not restarting the old one or it will resemble the former Soviet Union, says author and blogger Dmitry Orlov.

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11 Comments

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Islamisalie : LVL 29: VP 3.8: said:

Islamisalie

-3 votes NegativePositive

46 days 15 hours ago...

Yeah....this guy is a quack.

ulikba : LVL 18: VP 2.7: said:

ulikba

0 votes NegativePositive

46 days 12 hours ago...

When the former Soviet Union collapsed, very few people in that country knew how to invest in, start and much less run a business and so all they could do was to wait and depend on their government to do something for them. The situation in the US and the world today is much different from what the former Soviet Union had before it collapsed. US has a capitalist economy that is fueled by greed and greed is the same force that will save it from totally collapsing. Investors and entrepreneurs, not only in the US but all over the world, as the global economies become more intertwined, will always see plenty of opportunities in a failing economy of any free capitalist country and will always step in to take advantage of the situation and thus having the effect of revitalizing it.

A free market capitalist economy is like water that seeks its own level. It goes up and down all the time.

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

0 votes NegativePositive

46 days 12 hours ago...

The truth hurts, don`t it. I think this guy is 100% on the mark. Scary stuff. 5/5, and thanks dude_from_detroit for bringing him to our attention.

What he doesn`t say outright is this: the common cause of failure in both the USA and the USSR is OLIGARCHY. USA = corporate + government oligarchy (plutocracy / fascism). USSR = oligarchy of corrupt government + elite.

When you get oligarchy / plutocracy / fascism of any flavor, the very few people at the top CAN NEVER MAKE GOOD DECISIONS. They are implicitly ignorant of conditions on the ground, because they are not there. Properly functioning free markets work only when many many people make decisions locally for themselves, their families, their neighbors, and their communities. They suffer the consequences of their own decisions and actions, and they are accountable to people who they live with and therefore can`t escape. It is implicit wisdom and justice. We are the only people who can possibly know all the right things to do. We are the only people who can do it intelligently and compassionately.

Whether it`s 1% of the people ruling things from government seats, or 1% ruling from corporate board rooms, it`s still 1% making all the decisions and rules. They can never get it right, and history proves they will always screw everyone else. Liberty is subverted by unrestrained greed. Society fails.

The USSR failed because their country was always ruled by 1% elite. "Communism" was always a propaganda lie to control the people, oligarchy was always the real truth. That truth is why we Westerners fought "communism": it was never power to the people, we would have cheered for that. It was a violent ruthless greedy lie, that enslaved billions of people at the hands of 1%.

The USA is failing because their free market winners devoured the government and formed an oligarchy / plutocracy / fascism. Huge corporations and their corrupted government have concentrated the decisions into the hands of 1%. It is doomed to failure. It is every bit as repugnant as the USSR ever was.

Unlimited government power, or unlimited wealth; two paths to the same ultimate failure: 1% ruling 99%, always in greed and implicit ignorance.

The only thing that was even close to flaky in my opinion was when he said "organic". But what he means is that there simply won`t be much for chemical fertilizers or pesticides within reach of normal people, which means they will be growing food with shit and compost, and that`s effectively organic farming, regardless of the whole BS "certified organic" marketing crap we have now.

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

1 votes NegativePositive

46 days 10 hours ago...

^ulikba, I partially agree, but the USA (especially) has a problem with allowing market winners to turn into vast predatory monsters (near monopolies) with way too much control. Governments, competition, justice, laws; nothing can stop them when they consolidate too much money and power. Even when there are a few mega companies at the top, it`s obvious they often collude with each other because there isn`t enough diverse competition, and they all gain by price fixing and shared lobbying. That poses the greatest risk to all the little guys who need to start up and fill in the gaps.

Like Dimitri said, we can`t rely on economic expansion any more. We used up the resources that drove unlimited expansion. We now have to build sustainability. It could be a lot better life than what he says, but it will take three things:


1. We have to limit how big / how much can be made by any one person or company.

We already have seen a 200 year period with no limits: the winners got way too big and took over. It`s history, that`s what happened. They are frequently ruthless too, and have done terrible damage to everything. Without limitless new resources, unlimited wealth for any one party now comes always at the expense of others. I call it theft, and I think you have to be in very deep denial to not admit that`s exactly what`s going on these days. It is time to say goodbye to the pioneering tycoons of yesteryear. They did their work and built our nations, and they were extravagantly paid for it. But their children became our new mafia overlords, the worst thieves history has ever seen. Without sensible limits, we will continue to see the worst of an unchecked dog-eat-dog mentality.


2. We have to develop more voluntary cooperation as a natural compliment to our strong ethics of competition and commercialization.

We have a bad lack of practice at cooperating, with the attitude that almost everything is "supposed to be" commercialized in our capitalist economies. Most people spend most of their time working and playing within commercialized systems, instead of together in voluntary ones. That also causes over regulation, where only professionals can do most things, and the broader public fails to learn even basic skills. Firefighting, first aid and simple medical care, simple small farming, teaching, mechanical skills, etc.. As a result people get too dependent on large systems that fail, socialized or commercial. Sometimes we need to directly and freely help each other instead. Socialization and commercialization don`t solve every need. We have hired out too many things to businesses and governments, that we need to do for ourselves and intimately as communities.


3. We need to teach COMPASSION. DESPERATELY. Without a VERY strong and deeply internalized ethic of compassion, people are doomed to do truly shitty and destructive things to each other. With over 6 billion of us, we won`t survive unless we learn to be a lot kinder.

Omeko : LVL 40: VP 4.8: said:

Omeko

1 votes NegativePositive

46 days 7 hours ago...

America Will Collapse.....
I can`t wait.

fattirefury : LVL 43: VP 5: said:

fattirefury

2 votes NegativePositive

46 days 2 hours ago...

I`m deaf in my left ear

ulikba : LVL 18: VP 2.7: said:

ulikba

0 votes NegativePositive

45 days 11 hours ago...

exploder, I agree with most of what you said except for a few things like when you wrote: "We used up the resources that drove unlimited expansion". USA still has 4.1 billion barrels of oil reserves and it has existing proven technology to produce viable alternative sources of fuel and power from nuclear reactors, solar, wind, hydrogen, etc..; our lands are still fertile and able to produce tons of agricultural products that are way more than in excess of what the entire U.S. population can consume; our factories are still humming and productive using the most advanced manufacturing machines and equipment ever invented; we have physically capable and the best educated workers in the world that are able and willing to work their butts off (Americans are the most workoholic people); etc... So, I don`t understand what resources we have used up.

I agree, we need to regulate the free market. Absolute freedom is absolutely bad on any system. But, we have to learn when to tighten and when to relax the control. Limiting the wealth is not the answer. People and companies will not reach for the sky if there is an unreasonable, artificial barrier on their way. What the gov`t should do is to let them reach for their full potentials but make sure that everybody benefits from their success and so as a result, we bring the rest of the people up with them instead of bringing them down.

When majority of the people have more than enough of what they need, they become more generous and compassionate and would be more willing to do voluntary work.

On of the reasons, if not the main reason, why a communist run economy fails is that the gov`t assumes that the proletariat will selflessly work to their full capacity solely for the benefit of the whole community. What happens is that since there is no extra reward and incentive to excel, the workers only put in what the gov`t expects of them, nothing more nothing less. The economy does not naturally grow under these conditions. The gov`t has to institute artificial regulations and control to sustain the economy until everything collapses under its own weight.

Dimitri is comparing two different countries with different forms of government/economies and in different global economic conditions. I think he is more wrong than right.

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

-1 votes NegativePositive

45 days 10 hours ago...

^ulikba, I`ll start with agreement:

"When majority of the people have more than enough of what they need, they become more generous and compassionate and would be more willing to do voluntary work."

Amen to that. The slumping voluntarism we see these days is partially because many people are running very slim margins at home, and it is a sorry loss that they miss out on wealths of knowledge, empowerment, and generosity. But I will add that our TV commercial culture is no help. EG Hurricane Katrina; how can anyone justify having a city full of people living below sea level, who aren`t well trained and exercised in EXACTLY what to do when the water comes in? But they all saw the whole "Survivor" series. We have lost a sense of personal empowerment and responsibility to fluffy entertainments, delegated professionalism, and external dedicated systems (both commercial and socialized). Go watch a movie, you`re not qualified, and you wouldn`t want to put a pro out of his job. Even basic first aid + basic spinal, a one day investment every few years, would make everybody about 100 times more effective as ad-hock helpers AND smart victims who know how to treat themselves and cooperate with the pros.

Sadly, there is an implicit pressure in a capitalist society against personal empowerment and self sufficiency. Businesses will always be able to make more money by commercializing something, and pushing for regulations that help enforce that commercialization. Just look at household electrical: we could easily make plug-and-play modular systems that most people could use to do wiring on their own house. We have the technology. But on the whole, the industry would make less money that way, will argue to the death that it can`t be done, and just won`t do it.

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

0 votes NegativePositive

45 days 7 hours ago...

Now a few points of difference:

Resources:

ALL of the natural resources have been skimmed, there is no cream left on top. When whiteys came over, there was effectively infinite open real estate, virgin forests, wildlife, fresh virgin farmlands, enough clean water everywhere, minerals on or near the surface, new rivers to be dammed, and abundant oil and coal that were very easy to get.

Now: the USA has only about 21B barrels proven oil reserves left, and consumes about 7.5B a year. That`s 3 years worth, and it`s being used slowly because it`s expensive to get. They are digging off whole mountains to get coal. Logging is almost exclusively in second growth forests with far less and lower quality wood, and is very tightly regulated. Viable farmlands are mostly occupied, and now require substantial fertilizer inputs (expensive) to maintain viability. Fresh water is a precious and scarce resource, and supply crisis is brewing all over. Free wildlife for food? Nope, populations in crisis. Rivers? All the easy ones are in use, and the land above the rest is in use. Real estate? Exactly how many homesteaders have you EVER met?

Face it, the easy pickings are gone. Almost everywhere you move, you elbow into someone else. Everything is spoken for, allocated, owned. That doesn`t mean there`s no room to move, but without extreme caution you will be shoving someone else into a cramped corner. Fact: right now 10% own 90% of everything; that`s because there isn`t anything much else left for the 90% to own, and little opportunity to make it. They are NOT all just lazy losers. The few huge winners have shoved most of us into a very crowded corner. This was not always the case, but it certainly is now.


Communism: The reason the USSR failed was because it was a greedy oligarchy with all the decisions and profit made by 1%. It was NOT a true "communism", because the people did not actually get to reap the bulk of their own profits. The proletariat was forced to work for minimum gain, no profit or real accumulating rewards, and AT GUNPOINT (KGB et al). We don`t have a single example of a true communist country in history, where the people actually reap their profit fairly. But we do have employee owned companies. They work VERY well, and individuals are highly motivated based on their own self interest, because they get their own fair share of the profits, and have a share of control. I think that the failures happen in any system when people don`t get their fair share, because a very few at the top control (and often fuck up) everything, and skim off all the profits. That`s ANY kind of system.

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

-1 votes NegativePositive

45 days 6 hours ago...

Regulation:

We already have all manner of them, too many in fact. But nothing has been able to stand up against mega-sized corporate and financial interests. Because they are more powerful than everything else. And that`s where you get consolidations of power that destroy liberty, and even their own markets. It happens because the very few people in control have infinite motive to exploit those huge structures for vast short term gain. Who cares about anything when they can cash out $10M, $100M, or even much more?

Let`s be precise and honest about the numbers here: FACT: if you make over $400K/year, you`re in the top 1%. I suggest we cap that off at $1M/year, from all sources in all ways, averaged over 5 years. If you go over that in any 5 year period, it`s a crime, and you have to go work in a recycling plant at minimum wage for 5 years mandatory service, as well as losing everything above the $5M/5years max that you made.

What I`m suggesting would limit far less than 1% of us. But it would ensure that they can`t abuse their power to steal vast and obscene amounts of money from the other 99% of us. They would stand nothing to gain from the horrendous kinds of decisions they have been making lately. Look at the banking industry, the stock markets, the military industry, the insurance industry. Shit, look at Microsoft: crime/monopoly paid them, Billy boy made $100 FUCKING BILLION, we could never successfully govern their monopoly and abuses (we tried and halfassed slowed them down), and their product is still not that great, even though we need it, and continue to have to pay whatever they decide to charge. And I don`t care how much Bill Gates or any other crook donates back, they still stole the money in the first place, and it should be our personal and democratic choice of how to spend it, not theirs.

If you think we need a bigger enticement than $1M/year for some folks, then make it direct: If they work full time for a company, then they can make up to $5M/year, but no more than 1/5 of their total investment. So they would have to have $25M invested to be allowed to earn that $5M a year. And they can`t cash out that investment any faster than those rules imply, so they can`t just take the money and run.

I am advocating that we need to prevent the concentration of power (money, political), because it destroys liberty. Within ethical limits, everyone can be much more free. We could do away with a lot of laws that hinder our productivity and our liberty, because those laws are ultimately only there to prevent the symptoms of abuse, but we would cure the disease by removing the reward from those very few top level offenders that are subverting the entire system. The practical loss of liberty would affect only a very very tiny few, and even then not critically ($millions still = rich), but the gains to the very vast majority of us would be profound. Again, we are talking 1% vs. 99%.

Eat the rich.

Rosenkruez : LVL 19: VP 2.8: said:

Rosenkruez

0 votes NegativePositive

37 days 12 hours ago...

It`s easy to say things, it`s even harder to come up with evidence. This is why I don`t listen to news interviews, reports, etc. with idiots. You can pick up any moron with a suit who acts like they know what they`re talking about but really don`t. It`s more frightening that people will inevitably believe him.
If you want me to believe you, have the necessary PHd degree, be sure to publish your work regularly (credentials for short), and your research/work have to check out with others in the research community (this last one kind of solidifies that your not a random moron saying/writing stuff). If you can`t do this, your probably just another idiotic conspiracy theorist who believes Jews are ruling the world through banks, AIDs is man-made, and big brother is watching you. Logic and Research, ladies and gents, is key.

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