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Derren Brown Predicting The National Lot...

The first show in Derren Brown's new Series, The Events.In this episode, which was broadcasted live, Derren Brown attempts to guess the numbers of the live national lottey event on 9th September 2009. The results are pretty amazing. Remember this was LIVE, and on Firday 11th he will explain how he did it.

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15 Comments

Current View: 15 / Show all Comments

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

15 votes NegativePositive

70 days 23 hours ago...

OK, seriously, WTF did I just watch? Is this dude fucking Voodoo or what?

daftcunt : LVL 39: VP 4.7: said:

daftcunt

15 votes NegativePositive

70 days 20 hours ago...

Haven´t heard of him in a while, he re-appeared with a bang!

erico : LVL 41: VP 4.9: said:

erico

9 votes NegativePositive

70 days 19 hours ago...

EXPLAIN NOW!

h3ndy : LVL 32: VP 4.1: said:

h3ndy

34 votes NegativePositive

70 days 18 hours ago...

I switched between the two stations when this was broadcast, and it was indeed the national lottery with not even the slightest delay in the signal.

Perhaps he can answer how he did it as we`re burning him on a stake.

POOEYO : LVL 34: VP 4.2: said:

POOEYO

12 votes NegativePositive

70 days 11 hours ago...

I just watched the "how he did it" show... and fuck me!

Basically, he got a group of 24 people to study the past year or so`s lottery results - and then got them to guess the next results, then they added up all of their guesses for each ball and got the average. This is a statistical phenomena called "The Wisdom of Crowds".

1st attempt - they guessed 1 ball correctly.

Then, for the next lotto draw, he told them they wouldn`t work out the average until after the draw had been made - to cancel out any effect that greed may have had on their subconscious.

2nd attempt - they guessed 3 balls correctly.

Then instead of just guessing he got them to use blind drawing (i.e. they all relaxed, closed their eyes and just kinda squiggled the pen around to `draw` the number which was in their subconscious).

3rd attempt - they guessed 4 correctly.. in the correct sequence (3rd, 4th, 5th & 6th balls drawn were exactly as they `predicted`). The 1st ball was back to front (they predicted something like 43 - it was 34) and the 2nd ball was 1 out.

4th attempt - this video.

...or at least, that`s what he says. Misdirection? Who knows.

Here is his site BTW:
http://derrenbrown.channel4.com/derren-brown-the-events-win.shtml

h3adfuk : LVL 38: VP 4.6: said:

h3adfuk

-1 votes NegativePositive

70 days 11 hours ago...

Apparently, all will be explained today.

Venomousvole : LVL 39: VP 4.7: said:

Venomousvole

12 votes NegativePositive

70 days 10 hours ago...

neuro-linguistic programming. If you meet him, kill him before he says anything to you.

proconsul : LVL 40: VP 4.8: said:

proconsul

9 votes NegativePositive

70 days 8 hours ago...

how can your subconscious predict a completely random number? And how did their subconsciousness` know that they were predicting THIS lotto draw and not the one next week or the week after.

I call shenanigans

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

35 votes NegativePositive

70 days 5 hours ago...

Derren`s explanation and his 24 helpers is all BULLSHIT.

Occam`s razor. He used an infra-red laser scanner, printing the numbers on thermal ink coated balls. Hint: it`s sitting right behind the balls in plain view.

1. Coat balls with thermal ink, as used in most receipt printers and rolled fax paper. Bright white turns perfect black instantly with just a tiny amount of focused heat. Look at 95% of your receipts from things like gas stations or small card payment machines, they use this ink in the paper.

2. The IR laser scanning projector is sitting in plain sight behind the balls. It was there as he walked in, and everything was set up and calibrated well before hand; nothing has moved even a fraction of an inch.

3. In a few seconds at most, the correct numbers can be printed perfectly by the well focused laser scanner. The biggest delay is the assistant entering the numbers in a computer. He has many seconds for this to happen.

4. All assistants and technical consultants sign STRICT non-disclosure contracts with very high penalties for non-compliance. The truth will NEVER leak.

5. Do the math, it`s all just business. THAT MEANS YOU DO IT AS CHEAPLY AS POSSIBLE WITH NO RISK OF FAILURE. Live printing the balls is the cheapest way, and the only guaranteed way. His net business profits are minus his expenses, and crucially dependent on his continued APPEARANCE of wizardry. The hiring and tricking of the 24 helpers is just part of the necessary smokescreen, it`s cheap enough, and continues the deep meta illusion that is his brilliant career.

6. All the other explanations would be more expensive. Filming all the combos, careful live video effects, etc. The laser system could be rented.

7. All his past illusions with long hours of many retakes just improve the smoke screen. This was a cheap illusion in time and money for him. He had alot of holiday in that year.


If his methodology were as stated, then an underlying para-psychological explanation would be the only possible explanation, because no such thing as crowd-wisdom or statistics has any physical basis to beat 14 million to one odds. I think we can all safely rule that out.

Fuzzyman123 : LVL 31: VP 4: said:

Fuzzyman123

7 votes NegativePositive

69 days 17 hours ago...

^possible, but this explanation below seems more likely?

Also ignore Browns mathematical explanation. How he really did it was the use of a split camera screen. If you look closely at 5.53 the ball on the far left seems to be suddenly raised. This was a mistake by the assistant and is picked up when the pictures are merged again. To try and narrow down the chance of the viewer spotting tiny movements like this, the camera never focuses too closely on the balls until the very end.

You can see the raised left ball (giggedy) at 5.53 better in the original Youtube video.

Another Brown trick successfully debunked!

Edit: All the theories can be found here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/6173600/Derren-Brown
-lottery-trick-the-theories.html

exploder : LVL 50: VP 5: said:

exploder

5 votes NegativePositive

69 days 11 hours ago...

^ Sure, OK. Split screen is fully viable. Nothing was moving over there, all he needed was to computer freeze that side of the image, with the computer tracking the live side to maintain good mesh. The gear to do that could easily be just as cheap as the IR laser I suggested.

One way or another, gotta get the job done cheaply and with guaranteed success.

Neruo_ : LVL 37: VP 4.5: said:

Neruo_

0 votes NegativePositive

69 days 7 hours ago...

Derren Brown is a genius illusionist and artist. Some of the best tv I have ever seen. But his illusions don`t always stop at his explanations.

I agree with exploder and Fuzzyman123. His explanation is just too far-fetched and far too conveniently non-lame.

Why should he tell you the truth? Probably the truth is less exiting than a reasonably plausible, awesome lie.

edit: How did I forgot to mention that it is rather fishy that there is no audience there when he flips around the balls? Why isn`t there an audience? There is not a single reason why there couldn`t be an audience if the numbers were already on the balls. Sorry, but his `explination` is BUSTED. Que the montage of a plate with `Busted` on it falling on some random shit or something.

It reminded me of Ultimate Survival. It`s a cool show, and very well made. But either they have an invisible camera crew that films the guy do scripted things or they just paste a bunch of random (close and far) shots together and make it look like a single stream of events, but probably not just apart in time but also in place.. I love the `parachute-jump into the wilderness` with 3 camera angles of him landing and a few shots of him on the ground with no-one around.

Moral of the story: People don`t notice big fat cheap editing tricks and/or lies. Maybe because it often makes good tv.

Waltz : LVL 34: VP 4.2: said:

Waltz

4 votes NegativePositive

69 days 6 hours ago...

He used split screen...did u noticed how there were 2 camera man at the beginning when he says hello and shit, but only 1 angle during all the show? the video was overlayed during 15s while the balls where changed/ marked, and if u see closely, the first ball is a lil down before the lotto, and a lil up after it. this video explains it all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jae7M6htaiM

actually, i give a 5/% to it, good trick, only he got blown by a lil ball up.

Horuku : LVL 38: VP 4.6: said:

Horuku

5 votes NegativePositive

69 days 6 hours ago...

I would have been more impressed if he actually entered a ticket with those numbers so it could be substantiated. Instead it was done in a studio where they could have had any trick to do it as others have explained here already.

This guy is a fake.

sam2698 : LVL 35: VP 4.3: said:

sam2698

-1 votes NegativePositive

69 days 5 hours ago...

yay he`s back!

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