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there are new concerns in the senate over whether the united states is prepared for the mysterious and deadly avian flu.
the avian flu virus is spread by chickens, ducks and other birds and has been a problem in southeast asia for years. since late 2003, it has killed at least 65 people in four asian countries and has also been found in birds in russia and europe.
with strains of the virus found in humans, there has been growing concern among u.s. officials about the possibility of a pandemic and whether the united states is prepared to combat the disease.
"experts warn that a global, cataclysmic pandemic is not a question of 'if' but 'when,' " said sen. bill frist, r-tenn.
millions of americans could be infected; treatment shortage
the draft report of the federal government's emergency plan predicts that as many as 200 million americans could be infected and 200,000 could die within a few months if the avian flu came to the united states. right now, there is no vaccine to stop the flu.
"the first thing is, everybody in america's going to say, 'where's a vaccine?' and they're going to find out that it's really darned hard to make a vaccine," said laurie garrett, senior fellow for global health at the council on foreign relations. "it takes a really long time."
although there is no avian flu vaccine, there is one medicine to treat it: tamiflu. tamiflu is made by the roche pharmaceutical company with its plant in switzerland. roche says it has been selling tamiflu for years. scientists, however, have only recently realized that it is the sole medicine proven effective against avian flu. this has sparked a huge demand for tamiflu and a shortage of the medicine.
"our current stockpile is around 2 ½ million courses of treatment," garrett said. "[it] looks like we have a shortage."
united states not at top of waiting list
roche has set up a first-come, first-served waiting list for tamiflu and sources told abc news that the united states is nowhere near the top of that list. u.s. officials say they are working to obtain tamiflu quickly.
"do we wish we had ordered it sooner and more of it? i suspect one could say yes," said health and human services secretary michael leavitt. "are we moving rapidly to assure that we have it? the answer is also yes." however, when asked why the united states did not order tamiflu earlier, leavitt said, "i can't answer that. i don't know the answer."
world health organization expert to lead world response to avian flu
the concerns about avian flu come as u.n. secretary-general kofi annan today appointed one of the world health organization's most senior experts to lead a coordinated global response to a possible pandemic. dr. david nabarro — who's top health crisis official — has led the response within the agency to several potential crisis situations, including malaria, environmental health and food safety.
"the appointment is critical as the world is fast recognizing the risk of an imminent human influenza pandemic and is taking steps to reduce the risk and to get prepared," who said in a statement.
who said several countries have already joined forces to coordinate preparation. agriculture ministers from the association of southeast asian nations began meeting in the philippines today to discuss measures to curb the avian flu virus in birds. one such measure is the creation of a regional animal health trust fund.
in addition, the united states announced a new international partnership on avian and pandemic influenza at last month's world summit in new york. several countries are joining the effort, with a planning meeting slated oct. 7-8 in washington. who is also hosting a meeting of all partners on nov. 7-8 to coordinate the funding needed.
hell, i'm not ready for this...
:: anathema ::
abcnews
Video:
should we really be worried about this bird flu that we have been hearing about? i have heard some interesting points on npr, and read quite a lot about it, and it seems to me the answer is an astounding yes.
avian flu in birds is quite common; it is simply a type of influenza virus that is transmissible among birds. there are many known subtypes of this virus. some are capable of killing the birds, and some have proven they have an ability to cross over to other species, including humans. the subtype h5n1 has to variations of itself, the low pathogenic and the highly pathogenic version. the latter having a 90-100% mortality rate.
there are reported cases since 1997 in which the virus has crossed over to humans. in 1997 there were 18 cases in hong kong. only 6 of the patients died, and 1.5 million chickens were slaughtered to prevent further outbreak of this strain that came to be known as h5n1.
since this outbreak many more have happened, from the netherlands to virginia, vietnam to canada and popping back up in hong kong frequently. 170 cases of human infection of the h5n1 virus have been confirmed. the number of deaths was recently reported by the bbc as just reaching the century mark. what has so many worried is that although rare, with every cross over of this virus it gets the chance to adapt and develop an ability to be as transmissible among humans as current human influenza is. if that was to happen the current ratio of infections leading to deaths is alarming.
robert g. webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?
there are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," he told abc's "world news tonight." webster, the rosemary thomas chair at st. jude children's research hospital in memphis, tenn., is credited as the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
"i personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," said webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.
"society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. and i think we have to face that possibility," webster said.
"i'm sorry if i'm making people a little frightened, but i feel it's my role."
